The Black Swan
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Apr 24, 2025
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Description
"The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb explores the concept of highly improbable and unpredictable events called black swans. These events have a significant impact on various systems, yet they are often rationalized after they occur as if they were predictable. Taleb argues that humans tend to underestimate the likelihood and consequences of black swans due to biases and overconfidence in predictive models. He introduces the idea of antifragility, where certain systems become stronger and more resilient when exposed to volatility and uncertainty. Instead of trying to predict black swan events, Taleb suggests focusing on preparedness and adaptability. This mindset involves building robust systems that can withstand uncertainty and taking actions to mitigate the impact of potential black swan events. The book challenges conventional wisdom about risk management and offers insights into how individuals and organizations can navigate an unpredictable world.
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